Retail Supply Chain Forecaster

Do you enjoy the Art and Science of Forecasting?  We do too and are looking to add a technically savvy Forecaster/Demand Planner to the team. Purpose:The North American Operations Center needs a skilled Supply Chain Forecaster. The forecaster is the cohesive link among Sales, Marketing, Finance, Production Planning, and key Accounts. Activities are focused on developing and improving both statistical and collaborative forecasts within a S&OP process for various product lines including Zune, Xbox, Games, PC Software, and Hardware. Responsibilities:Develop and communicate demand forecasts and direct account level distribution requirements across all Microsoft software and hardware platforms.Provide statistical and business analysis via weekly reports for management review and analysis.Utilize SAP APO Demand Planning and other forecasting tools to generate warehouse forecasts (sell in) and Consumer forecasts (sell through) based on statistical trends and collaborative information received from Sales, Marketing and customers.Analyze historical data, trend analysis, product life cycles, and marketing activities. Gather and apply market intelligence to adjust forecasts that will ultimately drive inventory levels. Understand the inherent behavior and business implications of the retail and distribution channels as it relates to Consumer Electronics and Software industries will also be essential.Determine the best parameter settings to optimize the statistical forecast. This includes lifecycle, seasonality, competitive environment and other causal factors likely to affect the sales pattern.Life-cycle forecast management including launch, replenishment and end-of-life to optimize customer service levels and minimize obsolescence.Maintain weekly forecast signals that will drive build planning for finished goods requirements through monthly and weekly processes.Determine optimal forecast accuracy goals to be used for inventory stocking strategies.Takes ownership of key metrics including forecast error, channel health, and forecast change. Reports on assignable causes to metrics variances and takes action to improve metrics.Drives worldwide best practices with cross-regional peers pertaining to metrics, reports, processes, and data integrity.Seek opportunities for cost reduction within the supply chain without adversely effecting metrics.Understands Channel Distribution and the concerns of Retail Partners in the supply chain.Contacts:This person has frequent contact with internal customers and suppliers, including but not limited to Sales, Marketing, Product Group, Product Release, Operations Account Managers, Vendor Account Managers, Finance, and MS Vendors.  They will have contact with external customers, mailly retail buyers and planners. Qualifications Should Include:A minimum of 5 years working in Supply Chain as a forecaster, inventory planner, or retail/CPFR analyst and has strong knowledge of all aspects of the Supply Chain discipline.Detailed knowledge of industry best practices and forecasting concepts like S&OP, CPFR, Seasonality, SKU cannibalization, Lifecycle Planning, and ecosystem analysis.Expertise working with an enterprise forecasting system such as SAP APO, Manugistics, Logility or other related systems.Expertise working with business intelligence tools and concepts like ProClarity, Excel, SQL Reporting Analytics, Cubes etc.Strong analysis, problem resolution, judgment, and decision making skills.Strong communications, interpersonal, and organizational skills in a team environment. Ability to lead a room and build consensus when necessary.Ability to work under continual deadline constraints.Ability to quickly resolve problems, deal with ambiguity and think outside the box is essential.APICS certification preferred.A Bachelor’s degree in Business, Mathematics, Engineering, Supply Chain Management, and/or other related degree required. Operations or Supply Chain background preferred. Attributes of an ideal Supply Chain Planner Understands all aspects of forecasting.Knows statistical forecasting tools such as regression, time series, like-history modeling, and statistical forecasting.Knows how to identify season patterns using modeling functions.Can identify and improve forecasts through analysis of error (MSE - Mean Square Error).Knows how to apply different forecast models under differing product demand levels (low volume vs. high volume).Ability to apply causal factors and regression analysis models to predict future demand.Understands all aspects of Distribution Requirements Planning.Impact of inventory SS levels on requirements.Differentiate between dependent and independent demand.Understands distribution network. Can identify when product is at wrong location.Understands fundamentals of deployment.Understands relationship between lead-time and freeze duration.Understands impact of manufacturing rollover, incorrect inventory and present sales orders on future DRP requirements.Has strong working knowledge of SAP APO Demand Planning. Uses SAP Supply Network Planning and Demand Planning to enhance performance. ForecastingDistribution requirements planningFamiliar with adjusting forecast model attributes within forecast systems.Can export/import data from a SQL data warehouse for use in analysis.Has strong working knowledge of inventory management concepts.Takes complete responsibility for ensuring that inventory objectives are met.Knows inventory turns for respective grouping of SKUs.Knows the relationship between customer service objectives, forecast error and lead-time with respect to inventory levels.Understands concepts of cycle and transit inventory (saw-tooth diagram) Knows the costs of inventory (opportunity, holding, handling, risk of obso, etc.) Has an action plan to improve fill and reduce inventory levels.Can perform detailed analysis for management review.Performs root-cause analysis on all forecast error, and chases answers with appropriate parties. Performs analysis on demand history for responsible grouping of skus.Ability to organize and process large amounts of data and draw conclusions and provide specific recommendations from the data. General traitsAdvanced Excel skillsIntermediate Access skillsProjects a professional, caring image to other in same organization as well as other MS and external organizations.Is an expert on Supply Chain processesKnows all touch-points of position, including Sales, Marketing, Product Group, Product Release, Operations Account Managers, Vendor Account Managers, Finance, and MS Vendors.Knows and understands the importance of communications, both within and outside of SAP Supply Network Planning and Demand Planning.Knows processes such as returns, schedule change requests, launches, product discontinuation.Treats others with integrity and respect Understands retail sales environment  Knows retail shopping seasonal cycles  Working knowledge of retailer business models  Has worked with or for a retail sales company Microsoft offers an excellent benefits package to full-time employees including medical, dental, vacation, employee stock purchase plan, and 401k, plus some great extras including: our 24-hour nurse line, stay fit program, product discounts, and paid infant care leave. All part of our commitment to our most important asset: our employees. For more information about life at Microsoft, please visit our careers website. Microsoft is an equal opportunity employer (EOE) and strongly supports diversity in the workforce. Key Words: supply chain, demand planning, distribution requirements, forecasting, inventory, consumer products, retail products, reporting, analysis, Project Management ;